I think people are overlooking the obvious and that is you have a candidate that didn't win the last election solidly and hasn't done anything in my opinion that has increased his likelihood of winning another. Look at the dynamics you are dealing with as well, I think Bush got this real strong push of people that didn't like the Clintons and the Republicans who were desperate to get a winner. He sold himself off as being this centrist compassionate guy and he has gotten into office and done nothing of the sort. The people his 4 years would appeal to were die-hard conservatives that didn't need any convincing of voting for him.
The telling things are how his initiatives that should bring in more people just seem to chase them off. Seems the seniors he says he is helping with the prescription drug deal are pissed off about it. His steel tariffs were a stupid joke that I could see as a disaster from the start. He flat out tried to buy votes, but it could backfire on him badly. He figured that the 3 year period ends just after he is in office for a second term, but it didn't work out that way. Now he has the steel states upset at him and the steel consumer states not trusting him. Remember he did pretty well with the unions and blue collar workers for a Republican last time around, I don't know if he will do as well this time. The job market will probably be stabilized by the time of the election, but I doubt it will marked as robust or anything like that, at least not reported as much before the end of next year.
I am just saying look at the dynamics of his effort so far and look at how they build or destroy what base he had last time around. Also look at the Nader factor, people can say what they want but I am 100% sure he decided the election last time by pushing Florida to Bush. No way Nader voters would even entertain the thought of being Bush supporters and with a 537 vote margin the math is quite easy to figure. Making things worse, I think he and his brother gave Floridians a sense that they would benefit from his election, but I really don't see that. Florida is still getting an influx of NE seniors, much more Democrat in voting. If he doesn't win Florida, California still will be Democrat, New York and the NE probably stay strong for Dean. Pennsylvania will be a key state in play now because of the tariffs. Just looking at the numbers I think it is far closer than some suspect.
And I don't for a minute buy that Dean will be the same personality once it becomes head to head. He is running a brilliant campaign and a brilliant campaign requires shifting gears the whole way. He did what he had to do to get in front and get the momentum he needs to move forward. When it comes time to be serious and fight with Bush he will have those anti-Bush people in his camp, if he is smart he will moderate and work on the swing voters. I think he has a lot of issues he can work off of and everyone must remember that the fractured Dems will come together when it matters behind whoever they have. I think this has the makings of an election just as close as the last one.
